Logic is a systematic method for getting the wrong conclusion with confidence.
Statistics is a systematic method for getting the wrong conclusion with 95% confidence.
Since I started tracking the market (albeit missing a few days here and there), I’ve always wondered what I could do with the data. One of the more recent things I’ve done has been to try and figure out what the “average” is for the categories I’ve tracked. Now, not being an economist nor a statistician, the best I could come up with is using Excel – possibly in a kludgey manner – and going from there.
Am I spot on? Probably not, but its “good enough” to look at. I’m a little more interested in the general trends and movement, but again, math isn’t my thing. I hope this is interesting for you as it was for me!
A very important date here is November 13, 2012. That’s when Season Seven: New Romulus launched. There were a good number of adjustments made to the economy, including closing exploits, the new Reputation System, and more. There were three more patches released soon after on 11/15, 11/21, and 11/30, all having their own impact on things as the devs gently increased Dilithium earning that was within their Time/Risk to Reward ideals.
As we get closer to the Legacy of Romulus, we can see that we’ve been returning to the current average for Z:D for the period. Dilithium isn’t commanding the same premium price that it was, but I’m okay with that. I think we’re just seeing some pre-update blues, with people holding off playing, buying and selling until LOR comes out. There are Legacy packs to buy, fleet projects to finish, and generally a lot of changes on the horizon, so right now is actually a good time for a break. Also, I’m reasonably sure people are playing the Crystalline Entity event quite a bit on multiple characters, looking forward to the 50,000 Dilithium Ore payout at the end.
We’re a bit on the low side right now, but not nearly as low as times in the past. Again, I think New Romulus was the reason for the trading levels, although the spike beforehand is likely people making the most of their time before various exploits got closed, or they didn’t like the Omega salvage conversion rates.
Again, there’s a low period around New Romulus, but it seemed to recover nicely. Moreover, there’s definitely a high point before TOR was announced, followed by an incredibly sharp drop. Maybe we’ll see things recover later on, The current lows can probably be attributed to both the TOR announcement and the current Crystaline Catastrophe event. Given it’ll take 7 days to fully refine the 50,000 Dilithium Ore reward? It’ll take a little while after May 2nd before everything shakes out. Q’s Winter Wonderland had a similar lull.
Thoughts? Place’em below! I know I’ve missed stuff, or can’t correctly remember when they were. For instance, I know there have been Zen sales in the past, but have no dates! Chime in! 🙂
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