Three statisticians went out hunting, and came across a large deer. The first statistician fired, but missed, by a meter to the left. The second statistician fired, but also missed, by a meter to the right. The third statistician didn’t fire, but shouted in triumph, “On the average we got it!”
Its been a while since I’ve done looked at averages. Now, I have to fully admit that my data is a merely a small slice of what Cryptic has available to them. Moreover, I would imagine that Cryptic has access to economists and statisticians if they need a consult. I’ve got Excel and no formal instruction in the field. But, hey, when has that stopped me?
Nothing seems too out of the ordinary. The Z:D rate has been relatively flat, with little flux. A little boring, and undoubtedly frustrating if you’re trying to buy low/sell high. Offers seem to be doing well, though, with a lot of volume on the market overall. Its still a fantastic market if you want to buy Zen with Dilithium, though. I’d like to see some more flux simply because its a bit low for my tastes; while its great for me as a Dilithium seller, I still like the higher 1:150 range or so as being a more equitable rate. While 1:237 would probably be the closest to fair (figured by (500-25)/2 and simply rounding), its a bit too frustrating a number in my opinion, and might discourage sale of Dilithium. Could be wrong, of course.
Fun with averages. I don’t quite have a year’s worth of tracking yet, but at this time we’re selling below the average price. Granted, not much under! I must say we’ve come a long way since New Romulus released in November 2012, with its adjustments to the Dilithium economy (including exploit smashing).
People buying Zen with Dilithium is certainly a dynamic thing. The one thing that I find interesting, though, is if you look at the dual-chart, the volume of offers to buy Zen doesn’t seem super tied that much to the Z:D ratio.
Same with people buying Dilithium, for that matter.
Now, for the more guessing-games here, but it seems the market is doing above average right now for trading. Of course, that’s a moving target! Likewise, I have no idea what’s going on behind the scenes at times, either. I would hope Cryptic has a good idea of who their audience is, plus combined with the game schedule? One could come up with a variety of reasons why the market behaves the way it does. Certainly, I wouldn’t be surprised if spikes in the market early in the year are from Christmas spending money, tax returns, and more.
What are your thoughts?
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